Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2025-06-25 Origin: Site
【Introduction】In the first half of the year, the overall price of domestic citric acid market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. In the first quarter, the cost side fluctuated and strengthened, which led to a slight increase in the price of citric acid. However, as the market supply and demand fundamentals gradually became loose, the price of citric acid began to fall. In the second half of the year, the cost of citric acid, market mentality and supply and demand relations constrained each other, and the price may maintain a low-level fluctuation trend, and the upward support is still not obvious.
In the first half of 2025, the domestic citric acid market price showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the average price fell compared with the same period last year. As of June 20, the average market price of citric acid monohydrate was 4928.8 yuan/ton, down 2.43% from the same period last year. The highest point appeared in late March at 5,000 yuan/ton, and the low point appeared in early February at 4,663 yuan/ton, with the maximum fluctuation range of 337 yuan/ton. Since February, the price of raw corn has continued to rise, and the cost pressure of enterprises has increased significantly. At the same time, the improvement of supply and demand relations has led to a rebound in the market price of citric acid, and the upward trend has continued until early April. In the rest of the time, citric acid was under the negative influence of strong supply and weak demand, and the price fluctuated and fell. Judging from the relative price level in the past decade, the price of citric acid monohydrate in 2025 will be below the average line of the past decade, and is getting closer to the low value of the past decade.
Industry losses worsen, prices gradually stop falling in June
Corn is the most important raw material for citric acid. In 2025, corn prices will show an overall increase and a small decline in stages. The average price in the first half of the year is estimated to be 2186.95 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.29% (2180.68 yuan/ton in the second half of 2024), and a year-on-year decrease of 5.66% (2318.07 yuan/ton in the first half of 2024). Starting from 2025, the available grain supply of grassroots farmers will be significantly reduced compared with the same period of previous years. In the first quarter, under the influence of downstream enterprises building warehouses, replenishing warehouses and traders building warehouses, the demand for corn has increased significantly in stages, the market supply and demand relationship is tight, and corn prices continue to rise. At this time, as costs increase, citric acid prices will open up an upward channel. In late March, some traders became more active in shipping, the supply of grain increased, the demand for downstream warehouses weakened, and corn prices fell narrowly. Starting from June, affected by the wheat harvest in North China, the supply of corn has tightened in stages, and corn prices have risen again. Due to the volatile upward trend in corn raw material prices, the production costs of citric acid enterprises have increased, and the industry's losses have intensified. As of June 19, after hedging the by-product citric acid residue, the citric acid industry made a profit of -455.9 yuan/ton in June, an increase of 133.4 yuan/ton compared with the same period last month. As the citric acid industry is in a loss-making state, manufacturers are more reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices have gradually stabilized in June.
The market supply and demand are loose, and prices began to fall in the second quarter
In the first half of 2025, although there was no new capacity release in the domestic citric acid market, the high capacity base in 2024 still affected the market, and the output of citric acid continued to grow. In order to reverse the downward trend of market prices and restore corporate profitability, the industry's self-discipline ability was improved in the second quarter. Some companies limited production to maintain prices, and the reduction in production was between 20% and 40%, which affected the downward trend of production and operating load in the second quarter. It is estimated that the operating load of the citric acid industry in June will be 64.8%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Citric acid companies have eased supply pressure through independent adjustment of operating load, and citric acid market prices have gradually stopped falling since June.
As an export-oriented product, the domestic citric acid export volume is 70%-80%. Citric acid exports exceeded expectations in the first quarter, and as overseas exports rebounded, the overall demand for citric acid increased. Although there was a seasonal decline in the second quarter, the overall export volume in the first half of the year remained high. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, China's citric acid exports from January to May were 570,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. In the first half of the year, the total citric acid exports are expected to be 680,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. At the same time, the domestic market demand also showed an increase in the first quarter, and in the second quarter, as some demand was overdrawn and entered the consumption off-season, the demand showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, and the supply and demand relationship gradually became loose.
Citric acid prices may fluctuate at a low level in the second half of the year
From the perspective of raw materials, July and August are the consumption period of old grains, which is a period of shortage. It is expected that corn prices will maintain an upward trend in July and August. On the one hand, the supply of old grains in the trade link continues to decrease, and it has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. The tight supply may support the increase in corn prices. From September to October, the new season corn market volume gradually increased, and corn prices entered a seasonal decline. In November, the progress of grassroots grain sales, weather and temperature were greatly affected. If affected by rainy weather or national reserve purchases, corn prices may have room for growth. Overall, the average price of corn in the second half of the year may rise by 3.8 percentage points compared with the first half of the year, and the cost pressure of citric acid companies will also increase simultaneously.
From the perspective of supply and demand balance in the second half of the year, citric acid will face a situation where supply exceeds demand. In July and August, some domestic citric acid companies are in the mid-year maintenance period, and the supply level of citric acid slows down. Then in September and October, as the equipment that was previously overhauled resumes operation, the supply of citric acid industry will rebound. In addition, the new season corn is gradually on the market, and the support of raw material costs is reduced. We need to guard against the risk of price decline. In the fourth quarter, driven by the recovery of consumption, there is an expectation of a rebound in domestic and foreign demand, which will return the supply and demand pattern to a tight balance structure.
Overall, in the second half of the year, the cost of citric acid, market mentality and supply and demand relations will restrict each other, and the price may maintain a low-level fluctuation trend, and the fluctuation range is expected to remain at around 4,500-5,000 yuan/ton. In the third quarter, it is estimated that under the combined effect of increased costs and decreased supply and demand, the price of citric acid may temporarily remain stable; in the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of the citric acid market is expected to rebound, but given the limited driving force of the cost side, the upward range of prices may be relatively limited, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand in the second half of the year.
Source: Zhuo Chuang Information)
